NCTC WITS DATABASE DOWNLOAD

Panic ensued and thousands of people began rushing over the closed bridge; the railings gave way and hundreds of people fell into the river and drowned. There is evidence to suggest that statistical models based on expert human judgment in older cases tend to outperform the same expert human judgment in newer cases. Assuming that I have answered question A within the affirmative—the raw totals of suicide terrorism is on the rise—I can test my next question that suicide terrorism correlates not necessarily causally with a rise in overall lethality noted by NCTC in early , and further look at the data in Iraq and Afghanistan. This same principle is used in the WITS database. You might have to empty your cart, and place each item, one by one, back on the conveyor as you counted each item and added up the prices. In the vast majority of remaining cases where the coding is correct but humans and computers disagree, the computer has still been right and the expert judgment wrong, typically because the human element has allowed emotions or bias to enter into the aggregate decision making process.

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NCTC produces analysis, maintains the authoritative database of known and databawe terrorists, shares information, and conducts strategic operational planning.

The WITS data, like any other data set, has its strengths and weaknesses. If your researchers modify the WITS data to correct errors or judgment calls, properly indicate so in your work.

The trend in lethality is also increasing, visible by the crossing trend lines.

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Material was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3. A bridge near the historic shrine was closed.

Conversely, in cases where humans cannot code values for things so easily such as the amount of property damage caused by an attack then human judgment should be limited to broad stroke conclusions. The Universal Product Codes UPC on each item then allow the computer to quickly read all the labels and tell you how many items you have and how much they cost.

Difficulty also arises when estimating the amount of property damage, particularly when the US dollar equivalent is stronger or weaker in other areas of the world.

Worldwide Incidents Tracking System - Wikipedia

For instance, is this rise in lethality simply temporary due to suicide campaigns in other parts of the world i. Practicing what I preach—although my satabase and always correct wife would argue that I do so only occasionally—I decide to use the publicly-available WITS data set to test several easy questions that are on my mind about his work:. When collecting data WITS addressed two areas of concern: During the height of the crowd, a rumor started among dattabase pilgrims that a suicide bomber had infiltrated the crowd.

For example, in one very tragic event, the Baghdad bridge stampede, the experts insisted the event was an act of terrorism. There are plenty of examples of computers assisting humans with making decisions.

The chart appears to show the lethality ratio holding at about 8 people killed per attack in Iraq and Afghanistan. NCTC would not be blind-sided by seemingly smaller and less fatal acts of terrorism, and it would have a larger universe of terrorism to study. Such work shows that WITS and other terrorism data sets can be quickly evaluated and potential correlations can be identified quicker and more reliably than manual and human processes.

I plotted the data on all attacks except suicide attacks in Chart C3. With that in mind, NCTC analysts use some subjective judgment when there is incomplete or inconsistent information coming from multiple open sources about the events tracked.

Introducing the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS) | Wigle | Perspectives on Terrorism

As more definitions are added to the table, it is very likely that only a few additional attributes are needed to track them. For instance, although several professors at Princeton University praised Pape's data collection on acts of suicide terrorism, they provided a critical analysis of his research findings summarizing that his work selects on the dependent variable because the data set only has acts of suicide terrorism.

I estimate the total because I see the overall number is trending lower than It is now housed at the National Counterterrorism Center NCTCwhich is committed to an open and transparent process for the data behind the report. Databass properly study and ncct the infinitely relevant variables, no database is comprehensive enough in and of itself.

One could speculate the trend — relative to other places — is due to heightened security, better intelligence gathering, or countermeasures utilized to mitigate suicide attacks.

Asking intelligence analysts to diagnose the severity of injuries from a distance is a challenging request. That only 20 percent of the incidents made their way into the report seemed to undermine the spirit of the report. There are three formats: The NCTC gathered data from open sources manually using commercial subscription news services, the USG's Open Source Center OSClocal news websites reported in English, and, as permitted by the linguistic capabilities of the team, local news websites reported in foreign languages.

A reading of Pape's book reveals that NCTC and the University of Chicago database use slightly different definitions for suicide attacks,[21] but the trend I find in the data far outpaces the subtle difference.

Nevertheless, a simple cursory review of the statutory criteria revealed that the computer had arrived at the correct conclusion when it did not categorize it as such. But to ensure NCTC gives fair and proper consideration to all the events available in open source, NCTC collects information on attacks that have any indications of terrorism.

International meant any acts that involved the citizens or territory of more than one country. The lethality is very high, visible by the widely separated linear trend lines.